TurboBOT

Click on the image to enlarge.

We identified CME below 120 about a year and a half before it hit 400. Now we have BOT which is in the same basis business (of being a 'cash cow'). See this link for more info (no point rehashing it here): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BOT

Note the targets in multi-dimentional time frames. Also, note what CME did soon after I posted it a few days ago: it went up about 20 points in one day!

Here is a BigCharts link for updated charts: BOT

Winning with Steve Wynn

Click on image to enlarge (if necessary).

Not much point posting the daily chart. It's sloppy and choppy, not to mention sideways. But we do tend to like ones that have been essentially sideways for 6 months or more (as long as it has a good 'growth story'), but this one hasn't gone anywhere for about 5 quarters. Note the double bottom, and trend line break, and the break of the 'resistance pivot' of 58 (also marked on the chart). There is also an 'invisible pivot' just below it between 52 and 53, marked off with the black arrow from the left, using the 'volume at price' tool. Notice how the pull-back 2 weeks ago was halted (supported) by this powerful, albeit invisible, area!

Please check out their website (www.wynnlasvegas.com) for the newly opened and lavishly appointed (very stylish joint) Las Vegas facility. Also, Wynn Macau is to be opened (purportedly) late summer of this year (in the far east). That is a mega 'boom town' - the Chinese love to gamble. And the Chinese are everywhere, not just China! Click on this link for updated charts: WYNN is in!

CME is one we identified as a 'cash cow' back in August 2004, and they drove it down all the way to below 118.00, and now it keeps trying to make it through 400. Sometimes (OK, almost all the time) the 'silly sell-offs' provide some incredibly 'sensible' profits.

Bullishness is easy to spot....after the fact!

Click images to enlarge (if necessary).

These two charts are not your typical bullish consolidation patterns that many traders may be used to viewing and trading. Rather than showing 'falling wedge reversal' patterns (as was the case with SNDK over the past month), I will post charts that seem 'sluggish' by comparison, but that, in a bull market, can provide decent, if not glorious, returns. And that without 'chasing' the hot-shot stocks!




'See Spot Run' - and then chase Spot until you 'break your crown.' No need to chase this one, because it's 'just sitting there.' Obviously, you can't make (or lose) money in a sideways market, or stock.

Panic Premium in the SOX, and elsewhere

Click on image to enlarge.

The fear and loathing lasted 4 days, with a 'panic premium' of 1/8 in the SOX (instead of stopping at the 38.2% - or 3/8 down - Fib retrace level, it went another 1/8 to 50%. However, watch for, and be very carful of, a double top or rally-back in the SOX, especially during options expiration, which is tomorrow. CTXS and BRCM broke again, not to mention CYMI. Here is one (MCHP, also a semiconductor) that hasn't broken (as much) yet. The stock market has become so competitive, with all the hedge funds and mutual funds 'jockeying' for returns, that the upside bounces after the (four day) Fib (Gann!) retraces can be overcome in in 1 or 2 hours. If I write any longer, the move will be over!

The panic premium helped create the lift in the SOX and the RUT today, and beyond (perhaps). In the case of the YM, I previous wrote that the 'expected' pullback target was 10,917, but instead there was 'fear and loathing' there too (thanks apparently to IBM, YHOO and others' earnings), with some panicky trading below 10,850 yesterday. 'Steep and deep' are the watchwords. In a bull market, the deeper the pullback, the more explosive the breakout, if one should occur. In the case of CTXS and BRCM is already happened (again).

KCS Chart Pattern

Click on this image of the weekly and daily chart of KCS to enlarge.

Sometimes it's all about chart patterns, rather than the more crass forms of technical analysis.




KCS stats:
Market Cap (intraday): 1.44B
Enterprise Value (17-Jan-06): 1.66B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.67
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06): 9.49

YM (Dow Futures) Daily Chart

The upside target, and stopping point, was just below the 11,093.75 upper Gann frame limit. The current pullback target is 10,917.97 on the YM (Dow Jones front month futures).

Note the rapid 3 day pullback of 5/8 (a weaker Fib retrace, but this is a weak index). The SOX (semiconductor index) has experienced not even a 3/8 pullback (or a 38.2 Fib retrace), but the SOX is a much stronger index. The Dow Jones index has been over 11,000 twenty (20) times in the last 5 years, and it has now become a reason to sell it seems.

Energy and Gold

An uninspiring market with oil and gold being the only sectors that are working right now. So I have unearthed some unlikely candidates in the current market pull-back.
The first chart, also with a 'nice' pattern, is ESLR (currently trading near 13), broadly classified as a 'semiconductor' but which is actually a solar company, and purely speculative in terms of the fundamentals. Check out ENER which saw as a good trading opportunity in a nasty market last quarter, and is handsomely rewarding those who stuck with it.


The second chart is SFUN, an Israeli IPO from a few weeks ago. Check out the profile on Yahoo! Finance.

I will be tracking all entries as a portfolio to update % returns (profit or loss).

Year 2005: Two major disasters, two major rebounds

Have you ever had the eerie feeling that a total stranger was looking right at you as they were walking or running toward you, but then you realize that they were actually looking past you at someone they actually knew?

That kind of like how the market has “acted” this year with the London bombings, and now with hurricane Katrina. This is an amazing “object lesson” about the financial markets. They LOOK AHEAD. They look right past what YOU are looking at. Your point of view is egocentric, ethnocentric, viewpointcentric! You think that what YOU think actually means something.

In this case the market is looking ahead at all kinds of things, such as the Fed tightening cycle coming to an imminent end and, as always, earnings.

When we said that the 10,507 level was important last week (first day of the week, and first trading day after Labor Day – when the BIG BOYZ got back in town, the “adults” as some like to call them. It seems peculiar indeed that the bullish and bearish levels were so close together. You had the bullish level above number as 10,507 and the “old” bearish below level of 10,625 (see several blog post from a couple of months ago).

Now we have +2/8 resistance of 10,722 on the hourly of as the 9:30 market open.

Ever seen a billionaire geek totally loose it?!!!

If you check the news stories on the right side of this blogospere every day (or several times a day), there are some very well-chosen syndicated stories, mostly about the economy and the financial markets. However, some can be quite "juicy." Like the story from Forbes.com about a Chinese defector from Microsoft to Google.

...the billionaire yelled at him and said that the company had been done over by the Chinese people and its government--except Gates used an obscene past participle in place of "done over".

Here's the link - and for those wondering what the implications are, here are a couple of possibilities: 1) Google is a force to be reckoned with, and 2) even a powerhouse like Microsoft is unhappy with Chinese business practices (for those who got sucked in by the over-hyped Chinese stocks over the past couple of years).

10,507 was the important level on the first day after Labor Day

The 10,507 was what we were watching yesterday, and it didn't disappoint us. What we had was a beautiful trend day, which typically only happens 1-2 times a month. Hence, a narrow range and probably choppy day is expected. Yesterday was the largest point gainer in the Dow Jones index since July 8, 2005, up over 140 points.

200+ points available off the 10,625

Why make such a big deal of the 10,625? 200+ points is why! 100 points up, 100 points down. Capturing half of those moves (100 points) is X $5 per contract, or $5,000 with 10 contracts ($500 per contract).

We'll be taking a little summer break (3 trading days - Friday, Monday, and Tuesday) but may try to call in with an audioblog if anything interesting develops.

10,625, 10,625, 10,625, 10,625, 10,625, 10,625, 10,625, 10,625....

The 10,625, The 10,625,
The 10,625, The 10,625,
The 10,625, The 10,625,
The 10,625, The 10,625.

Big Buying finally came in...

This is what Big Boy Money buying looks like in the YM, because may have forgotten. It's been over a week. As stated last week, with summer trading it may happen only once or twice a week, when it usually happens at least 3 times a week. Some might have thought we were making too much of the 10,625 level. 10,585 was also important as an oversold level on Tuesday and last Friday.